A bioeconomic approach to assess the impact of an alien invasive insect on timber supply and harvesting: a case study with Sirex noctilio in eastern Canada.
Authors:
Yemshanov, Denys McKenney, Daniel W. de Groot, Peter Haugen, Dennis Sidders, Derek Joss, Brent USDA, FS
Source:
Canadian journal of forest research. 2009 Jan., v. 39, no. 1, p. 154-168.
NALT Subjects:
Sirex noctilio insect pests plant pests Pinus tree mortality forest yields timber supply growth models bioeconomic models economic impact pest monitoring stochastic processes timber production trees invasive species equations Ontario Quebec
Other Subjects:
timber losses
Issue Date:
Jan-2009
Abstract:
This study presents a model that assesses the potential impact of a new alien insect species, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, on pine timber supply and harvest activities in eastern Canada. We integrate the spread of S. noctilio with a broad-scale growth and harvest allocation model. Projections of pine mortality range between 25 x 10(6) and 115 x 10(6) m3 over 20 years depending on S. noctilio spread and impact assumptions. Our model suggests Ontario could experience the highest, most immediate losses (78% of the potential losses across eastern Canada), with Quebec sustaining most of the rest of the losses over the next 20 years. Potential losses of $86 to $254 million per year are simulated after 20 years. The net present value of total harvest losses after 28 years of outbreak ranges between $0.7 to $2.1 billion. Adaptation policies decrease short-term losses by 46%-55% and delay larger harvest failures by 9-11 years. Without harvest adaptation, failures to maintain annual allowable cut levels may occur once the total area infested exceeds 15 x 106 ha. While better understanding and representing S. noctilio behaviour will involve a significant effort, there is a strong demand by policy makers for this kind of information.
